Free real money survivor pool
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2020 NFL survivor pool guide
I have detailed how Nitrogens NFL survivor pools work and their benefits here. I have given a detailed example of how I won 14 bitcoin in a pool here.
In this post I will touch on what is different about this year’s NFL that you should consider. There are 2 ways covid will affect results this year. No crowd will mean home ground advantage is significantly reduced and the player opt-out will affect some teams much more than others.
No crowd means there is value on away teams
This is mostly because home teams will not get favorable treatment from the referees.
We crunched some numbers on that in the case of soccer and we think the same will playout in the NFL this year. That means home teams will be over valued and away teams are a good bet.
In week one there are three close games with a 1.5 point spread. I will be betting the AWAY team money-line in all of them. They all start simultaneously at, click for the odds comparison.
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers
- Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
- Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Another potential strategy is to bet the away team against the spread. The biggest away underdog is the first game of week one; Houston Texans + 9.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs. Deshaun Watson, Houston’s superstar quarterback, is looking better than ever. I will have a bet on that point spread.
The biggest away favorite in week 1 is Indianapolis Colts -6.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars and it’s easy to see the Colts winning by more than 6 points!
Some teams have 8 covid opt-outs, other teams have 0!
All NFL players were given the chance to opt-out of playing this season while still receiving a $150,000 salary and having their contracts rollover to next year.
New England Patriots lead the league with 8 opt outs, next is the Cleveland Browns with 5. Depth matters over the course of a long season, and these teams were not deep to begin with!
I will be betting against their season win totals of New England 9.5 and Cleveland 8.5. I will also use them in survivor pools the first time they are short priced favourites because I think they will fade over the season and are not good value to hold for later.
Three teams have 0 opt-outs
- Atlanta Falcons (7.5 wins predicted)
- L.A. Chargers (7.5 wins predicted)
- Pittsburgh Stealers (9 wins predicted)
This can only be a very good thing, look for them to beat their season win totals and value them as reserved pics for later in the season in your survivor pools.