I followed the Socceroos around the world to 4 World Cup qualification playoffs and the finals in Russia. I paid for it all with crypto I won betting on the games! See the introductory post for details.
2018 FIFA World Cup Asian playoff
October 5th 2017
Hang Jebat Stadium, Melaka Malaysia
Syria 1 – Australia 1
October 10th 2017
Stadium Australia, Sydney Australia
Australia 2 – Syria 1
In a way, I was glad the Socceroos failed to qualify directly from our Asian World Cup qualification group. I think the 4 playoff games against tough opposition in front of big crowds is the best possible preparation for the tournament. I also look forward to the excitement and glory of winning through.
I am confident of victory in this 1st tie because Syria has no home game and Australia has 2nd-leg home advantage. For the 1st-leg we just need to not lose and preferably not draw 0-0. A goalless draw would mean a draw with goals, like 1-1, in the 2nd-leg would send Syria through on away goals.
Asian playoff expenses
So how much are both legs of the journey costing me in total? I have 2 advantages;
- By coincidence, I am starting out in Thailand, close to the 1st-leg in Malaysia.
- I have mates I can stay with for the 2nd-leg in Sydney.
Bitcoin was worth about $4000 USD at the time of the expenses.
|Flight: Bangkok to KL||$292||73|
|Hotel: Melaka 4-7 Oct||$465||116|
|VIP ticket: Syria v Aus 5 Oct||$36||9|
|Flight: KL to Sydney||$1893||473|
|Ticket: Aus v Syria 10 Oct||$70||18|
|Incidentals: $100 p/day 4-11 Oct||$800||200|
Asian playoff bets
I have 2 separate bets on
- Double chance: Draw or Australia – in the 1st-leg.
Risked 1510 m฿ to win 488 m฿.
- Australia to qualify.
Risked 2826 m฿ to win 438 m฿.
If both bets win I will cover all the expenses for the trip. If Syria win the 1st-leg and the “Double chance: Draw or Australia” bet loses, I will double down on the “Australia to qualify” bet. However the odds will be a lot higher which will keep the amount risked under control.
Double chance: Draw or Australia
This bet was up at odds around 1.2. However by making the 2 bets separately at multiple sportsbooks I got equivalent odds of 1.23.
The odds then came right in to 1.15. This means my bets at 1.23 are great value no matter what happens. I am not worried about the result because I made bets with positive expectation.
Nitrogen (review) had the best odds so I started there. Unfortunately they had low maximum bets on this event so I got the rest on at Lunarbets and mBit.
Screenshots and links to bet slips are below. Here is the bet matrix with figures in m฿.
|Bet||Odds||Stake||Result if Syria||Result if Draw||Result if Australia|
Australia to qualify
|Bet||Odds||Stake||Result if Syria||Result if Australia|
While I might simply bet on Australia during the qualifiers I will not do that in the actual tournament. At the World Cup I will use these betting strategies.