Elizabeth Warren can win the 2020 US presidential election

Warren wins the Democratic primary because…

She is acceptable to the widest range of primary voters

The Democratic primary is coming down to a 3-way contest between Biden, Sanders and Warren.

Biden is on the moderate left, he is unacceptable to progressive left voters. Sanders is on the progressive left, he is unacceptable to moderate left voters.

Warren sits perfectly between them and is acceptable to everyone. She is the first-choice candidate for centre-left voters and the compromise second-choice candidate for voters at either end. If Sanders’ support drops it will move to Warren. Likewise, if Biden’s support drops it will also move to Warren.

Creepy Uncle Joe will lose

It will be difficult for Biden to recover after an opponent makes negative adds of him being handsy and inappropriate with little girls.

Joe Biden is a moderate old straight white male, exactly what the progressive left of the Democratic party wants to get away from. At the most recent (4th) debate there were times when he could hardly string a sentence together. With the constant attention of a long campaign, it’s inevitable that the 76-year-old with have some bad senior moments.

The early front-runner based on name recognition rarely wins. Over the long campaign, other candidates’ name recognition will increase while Biden’s is already at its maximum.

Comrade Sanders will lose

Bernie Sanders reached his peak popularity last time around and it was not enough. Everyone who is going to be a Sanders supporter is already a Sanders supporter, he is a known quantity.

Sanders is also an old straight white man. At 78 years old he recently had a heart attack.

Sanders is too progressive for the moderate wing of the Democratic party and he loses a lot of the progressive vote to Warren.

Warren’s positives

People would like a female President

A lot of people want a president who is not an old straight white man. Hillary missed out on a lot of this vote last time around because her negatives were so high they outweighed peoples desire to vote for a woman.

She effectively uses the politics of fear, victimhood and laziness

Politicians often construct this frame for voters

1. Problems in your life are caused by {external forces that you cannot control}.
2. {our party} in government will solve your problems.

They do it because it works. People want something external and out of their control to blame their problems on, and they want someone else to fix them. So politicians provide the fake cause of voter’s problems and promise the solution.

For conservative politicians, it often looks like this

1. Problems in your life are caused by {immigrants and foreigners}.
2. {Conservative party} in government will solve your problems.

The Warren platform will look something like this

1. Problems in your life are caused by {the 1% and corporations}.
2. {Progressive party} in government will solve your problems.

And it works. Here it is in action

Pocahontasgate is out of the way

When Trump called Elizabeth Warren “Pocahontas” 2 years ago I laughed. When I heard it a year ago, air came out of my nose slightly faster than normal. Now it has no effect. The Pocahontas thing is pretty much over and in the past, it’s factored in. Warren was smart to do the DNA test when she did which progressed the story very early in the election cycle.

Trump loses the general election because…

Many of the reasons for Trump’s unlikely victory in 2016 will not apply in 2020.

Better opposition

In 2016 Trump was up against a flawed candidate who ran a bad campaign. Hillary Clinton:

• Was seen as the ultimate corrupt Washington insider.
• Did not visit the rust belt swing states which ended up costing her the election.
• Was a frail little old lady who collapsed in public.

This time around Trump will have to take on a much better candidate who will run a much better campaign. The anti-Trump forces will have learnt a lot from their last defeat and they will not underestimate him again.

Higher participation and no protest vote

A lot of non-Trump supporters thought it was a foregone conclusion that Hillary would win the last election, and this had two results;

1. People stayed home rather than voting.
2. People voted for Trump as a protest against Washington politicians.

None of that applies this time around. Everyone knows Trump might win so they will not stay at home out of apathy. Also, it’s almost impossible to get protest votes as the incumbent, Trump is now a Washington politician himself.

Less gerrymandering and voter suppression, e.g. Florida ex-felons

Some of the gerrymandering and voter suppression that helped Trump in 2016 has been undone. For example, 2020 will be the first time ex-felons will be eligible to vote in Florida, which alone could determine the election.

Ex-felons are overwhelmingly low-income and minority voters, groups that overwhelmingly vote Democrat.

As well as being the most important state in the election, Florida is one of the main crime centres with one of the biggest prison industrial complexes in America. There are around 1.4 million ex-felons! That is almost 10% of the voting population, in a state that Trump won by 1.2%!

Demographic trends

Demographic trends are all moving against the party of wealthy old white people. Since 2016 a chunk of old people (who mostly vote Republican) have died and a chunk of young people (who mostly vote Democrat) have turned 18 and will be able to vote for the first time.

The US is becoming more ethnically diverse and people feel poorer. Poor people and minorities overwhelmingly vote Democrat.

These are long-term demographic trends that will make it very difficult for any old white male Republican to win the Whitehouse. Trump was the lighting rod candidate in the perfect storm. It was a one-off. Trump will not win again, which means the Democratic nominee will win, which I believe will be Elizabeth Warren.

Bet on it

Betting on Warren to win the 2020 presidential election is like a parlay combining a bet on Warren to win the Democratic primary and a bet for Warren to win the general election. I loaded up on that at odds of 4.7 a week ago and now it’s down to 3.65

I am not sure that Warren will be the Democratic nominee, but I am sure that Donal Trump will lose the general election. If your sportsbooks do not have a “Trump or the field” market where you can simply bet against Trump, they probably have a “winning party” market where betting on the Democrats is just about the same thing.