Before the last week of the 2018/19 NFL season, I had a guaranteed 14,524 m฿ profit, no matter what the results of the games. This was from a combination of the Nitrogen survivor pool and bets I made hedging against my survivor pool position in the last week. You can see my pick history on Nitrogen as player 189.

As I explain in the Nitrogen NFL survivor pool guide, I only have a small edge in survivor pools and there is no knowing how many years that edge will take to materialize. Given that, I was not going to enter any paid pools this year, until the events of week 1 allowed me to get a larger edge.

## Week 1

### Getting a 6.5% edge

The pool had a 1000 m฿ entry fee. It was open for entries until the start of the last game of week 1. Just before entries closed I could see that 15 out of 20 entries made up to that point had already been eliminated! Their entry fees were in the prize pool, but they would not be in competition with my late entry.

That meant my entry would be 1 of 6 remaining entries. If all entries were equal, that would give me ⅙ equity in the prize pool. So my 1000 m฿ entry fee would give me 3500 m฿ equity in the 21,000 m฿ prize pool.

However, the 5 other entries had already survived week 1. My week 1 pick had to come from the last game. The favorite in that game had a 71% chance of winning, meaning my entry was worth

`.71 * 3500 = 2485`

So a 1000 m฿ entry fee would give me 2485 m฿ equity, which is a 248.5% edge. I could not get that much edge because other players were seeing the same thing and entering late as well. All these late entries were taking part of the value that the losing entries had already lost.

In the end, I made 7 out of 45 entries. So the prize pool was 45,000 m฿. 15 entries were already eliminated, giving the remaining 30 entries an average of 1500 m฿ equity each. Late entries like mine had a 71% chance of surviving, so our equity was

`.71 * 1500 = 1065`

1065 m฿ equity from a 1000 m฿ entry fee is a 6.5% edge. I add to that edge by being a better-than-average player and by having multiple entry strategies available.

### The games

I could only make these calculations after the 2nd last game of the week. That game was played immediately before the last game when entries closed.

The 2nd last game was New York Jets @ Detroit. 10 out of 20 early entries had picked Detroit. This meant I would only enter if Detroit lost.

I was only able to get my deposit confirmed and my entries in on time because the game was a blowout. The Jets were leading 48 -17 in the 3rd quarter, I pulled the trigger just in time and made my entries with minutes to spare.

All 25 late entries picked the LA Rams to win at Oakland in the last game of the week. As soon they won I had 10,500 m฿ equity from 7000 m฿ entry fees, a great start!

Eugene Abungana

Author

I have worked with several companies in the past including Economy Watch, and Milkroad. Writing for BitEdge is highly satisfying as I get an opportunity to share my knowledge with a broad community of gamblers.

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