Correct score betting is a straightforward bet type that requires bettors to predict the exact full-time score of a soccer match. Correct score bets are popular due to their long odds that reflect the relatively low probabilities of predicting the correct score.
Placing a correct score bet
The correct score market pictured below is for a game which is expected to be low scoring, and the home team (the first number in the #:#) is favored to win. So you’ll notice that the smallest odds are for selections where the home team wins with the least amount of goals. For Team A to win by a score of 1-0 you’ll get odds of 4.5 while team B winning 0-3 had odds of 100.
In contrast for the correct score market pictured below the home team is a bigger favorite and it is expected to be a high scoring game. Also note the option to bet on any-other-score is the shortest odds of all, which will win if either team score more than 4 goals (more on any-other-score bets below).
How to predict the correct score
Ordinarily, there’s a small window of potential scores that frequently result in winning bets. This is seen time and time again with the 1-0 and its converse score 0-1 accounting for the most common match results across several leagues.
However, the trend has shifted in the FIFA World Cup with several upsets and high scores affecting the percentage of low-scoring matches. The last 2 World Cups delivered the following results:
Doing research ensures that you have a firm grasp of what to expect from the two teams that are going to face each other. We advise breaking the prediction process down into a series of steps:
- Decide which team will be the likely winner by checking the 1×2 odds.
- Consider whether both teams are likely to score by checking the odds of the both teams to score market.
- Figure out what you think the total will be by looking at the available total goals odds.
Then combine these 3 pieces of data to predict what you think the correct score will be and check the odds on that selection.
High-scoring matches vs low-scoring matches
Considering the above-mentioned steps can help you make a more accurate prediction. For example, if you analyze an upcoming match and deduce that Team A is likely to win, that both teams will score, and there will be over 2.5 goals and less than 4.5 goals (in other words there will be 3 or 4 goals scored) it allows you to narrow down the correct score.
After following the process you’re left with a set of likely outcomes that include scores of 2-1 or 3-1. In this way, you have narrowed down the options of the potential final score.
It’s even easier to bet on matches that you anticipate will be low-scoring and where you expect a team to keep a clean sheet. These types of matches offer fewer likely permutations.
Low-scoring matches include final scores of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 which only leaves you with 4 likely results. While a clean sheet for one team leaves you with a likely final score of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, or 4-0.
Picking the any-other-score option
Sportsbooks such as Stake (review, bettors are geo-blocked) and TrustDice (review, bettors are geo-blocked) feature the ‘other’ correct score selection which covers any score not listed as a possible selection.
These win if either team scores 5 goals or more. Which most often happens when a big favorite thrashes a big underdog. In those cases the odds are relatively low. The any-other-score selection is better value when 2 teams are perceived to be about even but one team unexpectedly thrashes the other, such as Germany’s famous 7-1 win over Brazil.
More variables to consider
When doing your research you can check past correct score results and look for any notable trends. Furthermore, you should also analyze:
- Both teams’ current form.
- Recent head-to-head results.
- Team news, injuries and suspensions.
- Defensive and offensive strengths.
Hedge your bets
If you’re feeling confident about your research and predict either a low-scoring win-to-nil match, a draw or a clean sheet match you can opt to place up to 4 single bets on different correct scores and the winning return minus the losing bet’s will still profitable!
Hedging your bets gives you a better chance of winning, especially when predicting the correct score which in itself is a tough bet to land. With the long odds on offer, you’ll be able to place multiple bets and still turn a profit if one of your bets is successful.