A year before the 2020 US presidential election I thought whoever the Democratic nominee was would beat Donald Trump. I would have bet on it if they had not selected one of the worst possible candidates in Joe Biden.
I held off betting because I thought Biden might make a fatal error and that anti-Biden arguments might gain traction.
Also, things were too chaotic for me to feel confident betting. Trump’s economy was booming then Trump mishandled the Coronavirus and then there was widespread rioting! Months out there was no guessing what the situation on election day might be.
Pulling the trigger on election day
Anti-Trump enthusiasm and no Biden disasters
By election morning, Biden had avoided stepping on major landmines and had stayed strong in the polls.
On the other hand, it still seemed like there was an enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. However as election day went on I saw that in-person turnout, which would favor Trump, was modest compared to early/mail voting numbers which would favor Biden. This indicated that early-voting anti-Trumpers were at least as numerous and enthusiastic as election-day voting Trump supporters.
By 7PM eastern time, I also saw voting itself had gone smoothly with no election day controversies. When bettors I respect suggested this was another rare Mayweather vs McGregor scenario I was ready to pull the trigger and make a big bet.