Betting on World Cup corners

Contents

Corner betting is popular thanks to the value on offer. Corner markets often have odds discrepancies which can help bettors profit. Corners had a dramatic impact on the 2018 World Cup with 76% of the goals scored from corner kicks determining the match result!

World Cup average corners

During the 2018 World Cup an average of 9.5 corner kicks were taken per match. The rate of corner kicks proved to be slightly less than the previous tournaments, with the average number of corners per game usually around 10.

YearCorners/match
20189.5
201410.4
20109.8
200610.2
20029.7

Corners betting analysis

There are several ways to determine which teams are most likely to win corners and which teams are more susceptible to concede them.

The fundamental basics of corners are:

  • An attacking team needs to have the ball.
  • They need to shoot for goal.
  • The defending team need to deflect the shot.

Corners can be one in other ways but keeping it simple like this allows us to analyze and predict metrics for which we have very good data; possession and shots.

Possession

If we use Brazil as an example, you can see that they have an average of 58.6% possession in the 2018 World Cup table and that they also recorded an average of 8.2 corners per 2018 World Cup match.

If you compare this to Sweden with an average of 37.6% possession you’ll find that they recorded fewer corners, an average of 3.2.

This supports the basic premise that more possession results in more corners and vice versa.

Shots

A good indicator of offensive dominance is a team that takes a lot of shots. Shots naturally flow from possession and contribute to corners, since they will often be deflected or saved and result in a corner. Germany’s 24 shots per match correlates with more possession and average corners.

When comparing these points in the table below, the connection between possession, shots, and corners is obvious.

2018 World Cup Team Stats

Country Avg. Corners Possession % Avg. Shots
Brazil 8.2 58.6 20.8
Croatia 5.7 56.6 16.1
Belgium 5.7 52.9 15.1
England 5.6 54.4 13.4
France 3.0 48.6 11.6
Russia 5.2 37.6 9.6
Uruguay 3.6 47.7 12.0
Sweden 3.2 37.6 11.0
Switzerland 6.5 58.8 14.3
Spain 6.0 74.7 18.0
Argentina 6.0 65.3 13.8
Portugal 6.0 53.8 13.3
Mexico 5.0 52.5 15.0
Japan 4.8 53.0 10.5
Denmark 4.6 43.8 9.8
Colombia 3.3 50.5 9.8
Germany 8.3 72.0 24.0
Iceland 6.0 33.0 11.0
Poland 5.7 50.3 10.3
South Korea 5.0 37.3 11.3
Australia 4.7 51.7 11.0
Nigeria 4.7 47.3 13.0
Saudi Arabia 4.3 59.0 12.3
Morocco 4.3 49.0 11.3
Serbia 4.0 42.7 11.0
Costa Rica 3.7 39.3 9.0
Tunisia 3.3 52.7 12.0
Peru 3.0 50.3 10.3
Senegal 3.0 42.0 10.0
Egypt 2.0 43.3 9.3
Panama 1.7 36.0 8.0
Iran 1.7 26.5 7.7

Live betting on corners

Corners often come in clusters, in bursts of 2, 3, or 4.

Time intervals

From the 2018 World Cup’s 606 corner kicks, more corners were taken in the middle time interval of both halves than any other interval:

  • 107 corners (17.7%) between the 16th and 30th minutes.
  • 126 (20.8%) between the 61st and 75th minutes.

Historically the most World Cup corner kicks were taken in the first and last 30 minutes of the matches.

Corners per half

In the 2018 World Cup the 2nd half featured more corners than the first.

  • 1st half – 265 corners (43.7%).
  • 2nd half – 341 corners (56.3%).

Pressure points

Whenever a team is pressing for a goal corners will occur more frequently (you can bet on it). The team that needs to score will take more shots at goal, some of which will be saved or deflected for corners.

This usually happens when a team needs to change the match result from a loss to a draw or a draw to a win. However, it can also happen in the final game day of the group stage when a team needs to improve their goal difference.

Popular corner betting types

Total or Over/Under corners betting

This market refers to the total number of corner kicks taken during regular time. 10.5 is the most common line.

Example:
Over 10.5
Under 10.5

You predict if the combined corners will either be Over 10.5 corners (11 or more corners) or Under 10.5 (10 or less corners). The .5 removes the possibility of your bet being a draw.

Handicap corners betting

This bet works the same way as an Asian handicap where one team is given a head start (+) and the other team a handicap (-) to level the playing field. The team that gets the most corners, after the head start or handicap is applied, wins.

Example:
Spain +1.5
Germany -1.5

Germany would have to get at least 2 more corners than Spain for the bet of Germany -1.5 to win.

2 comments

  1. Anonymous

    Never thought about live in-play betting on the 2nd half. I might change my stance.

  2. Greg

    One of my favorite in play betting strategies is to bet on a high number of corners in play when the prematch favorite is actively chasing an equalizer in the game

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