What are Implied Odds/Probability

Contents

Implied odds/probability isn’t something that a lot of players think about. Even players that do a lot of research, don’t always look into the implied odds on a bet. However, these can be an excellent way for you to find the best bets to place. We’re going to take a look at how you can work out the implied odds of different bets and how to use them to your advantage. 

What are Implied Odds?

Implied odds essentially turn the odds that are offered on a sporting event into a percentage. However, unlike normal percentages, it doesn’t add up to 100%. In almost all cases, the percentage will be over 100%. This is because the crypto sportsbook that you’re playing at will build a small house edge into all bets that they offer. 

The reason that this is important is that it tells players the real odds of each bet. As the house edge often isn’t included with most working, this gives a full picture of each bet that’s placed. From there crypto players can work out what the overround is, which allows for the best value to be found between crypto sportsbooks.

Working out the Implied Odds

When it comes to working out what the implied odds are, it involves taking all of the possibilities and then carrying out some calculations to work out the percentages. Here’s an example to help explain it.

In an NBA game, you might get the same odds for a handicap win. So, if the Lakers were playing the Warriors, the odds might look something like this. 

Lakers +4.5 (1.90)

Warriors – 4.5 (1.90)

So this handicap bet would pay out 1.90 for whichever team you wagered on. If you then wagered 1 BTC on each bet your payouts would look like this. 

Lakers 1.9 BTC

Warriors 1.9 BTC

As you can see, you’d need to wager 2 BTC to cover both options but no matter what you would get 1.9 BTC back at the most. In order to work out the implied odds you would need to divide the stake by the payout for each individual bet. As they’re both the same in this case, it saves a little bit of time. 

1/1.9 = 0.526

That equates to 52.6% for each bet. Your next step is to then add them together. In this case, it would come to 105.2%. This means that there’s a house edge of 5.2% on this bet. It means that at first glance, it’s hard to find value in the bet. 

Using Implied Odds at Crypto Betting Sites

When using implied odds, it’s important to look at a few important factors. Firstly, you need to find out which sites are offering the best odds for different bets. If you find a crypto betting site that provides the best odds on a consistent basis, then this should be the site for you. There’s more to it than just that though.

You should also look to research the sports you want to bet on. Look at when points are scored, how successful teams are in certain situations, and anything else that you can think of. This will help you to find a market that provides good value on the whole. 

Finally, it’s important to use the best bonuses that you can find. This will help you to decrease your outgoings when betting. On top of this, it can also help you to beat the implied odds which we will come to in more detail below.

Beating the Implied Odds

There are three ways that you can beat the implied odds. Although there might be other ways it can be done, these are ways that won’t break any terms and conditions. Before we cover them, it is important to understand that there is no guarantee that any of these ways will be available. It’s all down to research and luck when it comes to being able to carry out any of these strategies. With that being said, it can sometimes happen so we’re going to cover the best ways for you to do it.

Using Crypto Bonuses

When you get a free bet at a crypto betting site, then you can use it to beat the implied odds at a site. However, in order to make sure that you don’t fall foul of any terms and conditions, you will need to sign up to more than one site at a time. For this to work you will need to find a bet that has close to equal odds. Then, you lay one half with your free bet and the other half at another site using real funds. So, you might wager 1 BTC in free bets on the Dolphins to beat the Jets. If the odds for this were set at 1.5 it would mean that you get 1.5 BTC back. 

You’d then go to the other website and place a bet on the Jets to beat the Dolphins, also with odds of 1.5. You’d wager 1 BTC here as well which would also offer a payout of 1.5 BTC. It means that in this situation, you will have wagered 1 BTC, but will definitely get 1.5 BTC back.

Using Sites Against each other

This is one that doesn’t come up very often. In this situation, you look for two sites that are offering different odds on a game. What you want is for the two sites to end up with implied odds of below 100%. So, you might get the following odds at two different sites.

Site 1

Bulls +3.5 (2.1)

Suns -3.5 (1.3)

Site 2

Bulls +3.5 (1.6)

Suns -3.5 (2.2)

Now obviously these odds are extremely unlikely, but we’re just using these as an example. In this situation, you would bet on the Bulls at site 1 and the Suns at site 2. If you bet 1 BTC at each site then it would mean you would either win 2.1 BTC or 2.2 BTC from a 2 BTC total bet. It’s extremely rare, but it can happen, so keep an eye out for it.

In-Play Betting

This requires a huge amount of research and observation. This provides the most common occurrence of being able to beat the implied odds, but it also requires the most work. There is also more risk here, as even with the research there’s no guarantee that the possibility to beat the implied odds will present itself. However, it still offers the best chance and if you have the time then it’s worth looking into.

The way these works is you choose a betting option before the game begins. So, you might be offered this before the game.

Giants (2.3)

Raiders (1.2)

If you had a research that showed the Raiders were slow to start games and often came on strong late in the game, as well as the Giants starting strong but then fading, you’d choose this as a game to beat the implied odds. You would start by placing a wager on the Giants to win. A bet of 1 BTC for example. 

You would then watch the game and wait for the Raiders to struggle early on while the Giants built up a strong lead. At this point the in-play betting would start to increase the odds for a Raiders win. As soon as it hit a point above 2.05 as the odds, then you would place your bet. It’s important not to be too greedy, as if the Raiders make a comeback then the odds would start to fall again.

You will then have been able to place a wager on both potential outcomes with both outcomes providing a higher payout than your total stake. 

Making the Most of your Crypto Bets

Research is always the most important aspect when it comes to making the most of your crypto bets. However, by understanding how implied odds work, you can give yourself an additional advantage. This is the best way to make sure that your crypto bets have the best chance of providing you with a profit. 

Of course, there is never a guarantee that you will win, but with a bit of effort your chances will increase considerably. 

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