Benchmark Trims Metaplanet Target as Bitcoin Slump Exposes Treasury Risks

Record Revenue Clashes with Massive Valuation Hits

The adjustment follows Metaplanet’s fiscal 2025 results, released in mid-February, which revealed a stark divide between strong core performance and severe non-cash hits from Bitcoin.

The company posted revenue of ¥8.9 billion (about $58 million), a 738% surge year-over-year, driven primarily by its Bitcoin Income Generation segment.

Premiums from writing options on its holdings reached ¥7.98 billion, fueling operating profit to ¥6.29 billion, a seventeenfold increase from the prior year.

Yet the bottom line told a different story. Metaplanet recorded a net loss of ¥95 billion (approximately $619 million), overwhelmingly due to a ¥102.2 billion unrealized valuation adjustment on its Bitcoin holdings under Japanese mark-to-market accounting rules.

This non-cash charge stemmed from Bitcoin’s price decline toward year-end 2025, after the asset peaked above $126,000 in October before sliding sharply.

Massive Accumulation Faces Steep Unrealized Losses

As of December 31, 2025, Metaplanet held 35,102 BTC, up dramatically from 1,762 a year earlier, a 1,892% increase that ranks it as the fourth-largest public corporate holder worldwide. Valued at roughly $2.4 billion based on late-2025 prices, the stash carried an average acquisition cost of around $107,000 per coin, leaving substantial paper losses.

Unrealized drawdowns on the holdings have since exceeded $1.2 billion, with some estimates placing total paper losses near $1.4 billion when factoring in the full portfolio.
Bitcoin’s weakness has persisted into 2026, compounding the pressure. The asset has logged its worst start to a year on record through the first 50 days, down 23% year-to-date.

It fell 10% in January and another 15% in February so far, marking consecutive monthly declines. Prices have struggled to break sustainably above the $70,000 level since early-year momentum faded, with recent trading hovering around $65,000 as of late February.

This prolonged slump, exacerbated by macroeconomic factors including U.S. tariff threats and broader risk-off sentiment, has kept corporate treasuries like Metaplanet’s underwater.

Market Volatility Tests the “Never Sell” Strategy

The downturn traces back to a flash crash in October 2025, when Bitcoin shed more than 46% from its highs amid leverage unwinds and external shocks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded significant outflows this year, adding to selling pressure.

For Metaplanet, which began its major accumulation in April 2024, the timing has proven challenging, with shares trading near multi-month lows and reflecting investor caution toward high-conviction Bitcoin plays during bearish phases.

Despite these headwinds, Metaplanet continues to execute its strategy without selling any Bitcoin. CEO Simon Gerovich has repeatedly affirmed the “never sell” stance, emphasizing long-term accumulation to increase Bitcoin per share.

The company generates income through options strategies that produce premiums without liquidating core assets, an approach that has proven effective in offsetting some costs and supporting expansion.

Ambitious 2027 Goals Amid Dilution Risks

For fiscal 2026, management projects revenue of ¥16 billion (about $104 million) and operating profit of ¥11.4 billion (around $74 million), representing roughly 80% growth in both lines.

This outlook relies on scaling the Bitcoin Income Generation unit further while pursuing the ambitious goal of reaching 210,000 BTC by 2027, equivalent to about 1% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Achieving that would require acquiring roughly 175,000 additional coins, likely through continued fundraising and yield tactics amid volatility.

Benchmark’s decision to halve the target acknowledges near-term risks, including potential dilution from capital raises and prolonged Bitcoin weakness that could strain liquidity if extreme scenarios unfold.

Yet the retained “buy” reflects confidence in the underlying model: if Bitcoin rebounds, the treasury’s leverage could deliver outsized returns, similar to precedents set by other adopters.

Recovery Prospects and the Bitcoin Treasury Experiment

Market views on Bitcoin’s path remain split but include notable bullish calls. Some analysts project the asset could reach $122,000 or higher by the end of 2026, based on historical recovery patterns following extended positive monthly closes and reduced volatility regimes.

Such a move would dramatically reverse Metaplanet’s unrealized losses and potentially validate its high-risk approach.

For now, the combination of record corporate accumulation and punishing drawdowns highlights the dual-edged nature of Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Metaplanet stands at the forefront of this experiment in Japan, where yen depreciation and economic pressures have encouraged alternative reserves.

Benchmark’s revised target captures the immediate downside, but the firm’s growth guidance and income engine suggest resilience if markets stabilize.