Bitcoin Wipes Out 2025 Gains: Will BTC Crash?

The Great Reversal: Liquidation Shock Wipes Out Year’s Gains

At the start of 2025, Bitcoin traded in the high 80,000 dollar area, supported by strong inflows into newly launched United States spot exchange-traded funds and growing acceptance among institutional investors.

Through the first three quarters, prices climbed in stages, breaking 100,000 dollars, then 120,000 dollars, and finally touching roughly 126,000 dollars in early October.

The reversal began on 10 October with a cascade of forced liquidations on derivatives platforms. Estimates from exchanges and analytics firms suggest that between 19 and 30 billion dollars of leveraged long positions were closed in a single day, the largest such event in Bitcoin’s history.

By mid-November, Bitcoin had dropped more than 30 percent from its peak, slid below 90,000 dollars, and effectively wiped out its year-to-date advance.

Recent trading around the mid-80,000 dollar band now leaves the asset slightly negative for 2025.

Total crypto market capitalisation has fallen from roughly 4.2 trillion dollars to under 3 trillion dollars in about six weeks. Ether has slipped into the high 2,700 dollar area, leaving it down more than 15 percent for the year, while a long list of smaller tokens has surrendered much of the gains built earlier in 2025.

On-chain data suggests that some long-term Bitcoin holders are taking profits or derisking. Analytics estimate that tens of thousands of older coins, worth several billion dollars, have moved during the downturn, including about 42,000 Bitcoin sold by long-term investors in November alone.

In percentage terms, the current fall, roughly one third from peak to recent lows, sits inside the range of past bull-market corrections.

During 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin endured several declines of 30 to 50 percent on the way to cycle peaks, often triggered by a mix of leverage, policy headlines, and macro shocks.

Will Bitcoin Crash?

Every major correction in Bitcoin brings back earlier warnings, including well-known bearish calls from traditional finance. In 2018, Warren Buffett said cryptocurrencies would “come to a bad ending,” reinforcing a long-standing skepticism he has maintained since Bitcoin’s early years.

That view resurfaced this month on social media as traders pointed to the intensity of the recent slide and argued it validates his earlier concerns.

Other long-term critics see structural vulnerabilities. Analysts at major banks have, at times, warned that if liquidity dries up during periods of elevated leverage, Bitcoin could retrace much deeper than most traders expect.

Those warnings appear again in late-2025 research notes citing the October liquidation wave as evidence of how quickly systemic stress can build when funding markets tighten.

From our desk, the more relevant indicator is the technical structure. Bitcoin is currently defending a support zone in the mid-80,000s, with the next meaningful area around 80,000 dollars and a deeper historical reference point near the April 2025 lows in the 74,000 range.

A clean break below that cluster would be significant because it aligns with levels used by systematic funds and options desks for trend confirmation. If those levels fail, sell programs can accelerate the move without any new negative catalyst.

Macro Headwinds and ETF Flows Determine Next Market Move

The broader picture extends beyond charts. Real rates remain elevated, liquidity conditions have tightened, and the dollar has strengthened, pressuring risk assets across the board. Investors seeking income have rotated back into safer instruments, removing a layer of support that fuelled Bitcoin’s rise earlier in the year.

At the same time, spot exchange-traded fund flows remain a critical variable. Several weeks of redemptions have already amplified volatility, and persistent outflows would signal that institutional positioning is still unwinding.

If that pattern stabilises, the probability of a deeper breakdown decreases, but if redemptions accelerate during any retest of support, the downside risks grow.

Put together, the data does not confirm an imminent collapse, yet it does highlight a market that has lost its earlier momentum and is now sensitive to macro shifts, ETF flows, and liquidity conditions.

Traders are treating the 80,000 to 84,000 dollar region as the line that separates a normal correction from the start of a prolonged downturn.

The next move through those levels will set the tone for the remainder of the quarter.