What’s Next for Bitcoin After the U.S. Government Shutdown Ends

Regulatory Chill

The stalemate that began on October 1, 2025, over immigration and spending caps rippled far beyond furloughed workers. More than two million employees missed paychecks, national parks were shuttered, and economic activity shrank by an estimated $11 billion. In financial circles, halted Treasury operations dried up short-term funding and dampened risk appetite.

Crypto markets mirrored that chill. Bitcoin slid almost 15 percent in early November during a tech-sector sell-off that erased most of 2025’s gains, falling from January highs above $120,000. Ethereum dropped 20 percent as decentralized-finance protocols saw $500 million in withdrawals. Forced liquidations across crypto totaled roughly $20 billion in October alone. Beyond price damage, the freeze stalled progress on stable-coin regulations and delayed long-awaited ETF approvals.

Historical Parallels: The 2019 Playbook

A flashback helps explain the current optimism. During the 35-day 2019 shutdown over border-wall funding, Bitcoin languished near $3,800 when a deal arrived. Within five months, it had tripled to $13,000, driven by restored liquidity and a global shift toward risk assets.

The rally began with seven straight green days as traders embraced compromise and stimulus talk.

Today’s setup echoes that period but on a larger scale. The $1.7 trillion discretionary-budget fight now nearing resolution includes add-ons from health-care extensions to new congressional-security outlays. Bipartisan fatigue is evident: eight Democrats joined Republicans in the Senate vote, and House passage under Speaker Mike Johnson appears likely this week.

Market historians see familiar conditions for a liquidity-driven surge; policy gridlock giving way to fiscal relief.

The Fiscal Floodgates Reopen

Resolution will not simply restore normalcy and unleash spending. About 800,000 furloughed civilians are owed $4 billion in back pay that will land almost immediately, much of it via digital channels. President Trump’s endorsement adds a populist twist: proposed $2,000 rebate checks for middle- and low-income families financed by new import tariffs.

Such stimulus recalls 2020’s pandemic payments that coincided with Bitcoin’s leap from $7,200 to $29,000 in three months.

Shutdown delays in Treasury auctions lifted interbank rates by roughly 0.5 basis points, indirectly pushing up crypto-borrowing costs on DeFi platforms. Reopening should reverse that strain. Analysts forecast roughly $700 million in new Bitcoin open interest within weeks as funding rates turn positive.

Traditional equities tell a similar story: Nvidia rebounded 5.8 percent Monday after a 10 percent slide during the shutdown, and the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants collectively gained 2.8 percent. A restored risk-on mood typically magnifies crypto performance, positioning Bitcoin as a prime beneficiary.

Targets and Catalysts

Forecasts cluster around bullish thresholds. Farzam Ehsani of VALR projects a climb to $130,000 if Bitcoin regains its 200-day moving average near $110,000, describing the reopening as “a cycle-reset button.” Standard Chartered extends its 2025 target to $200,000, citing a halving of momentum and growth in adoption. Ethereum, up 7.8 percent to $3,632, aims for $5,000 as layer-two scaling accelerates.

Thursday’s CPI release could reinforce a 63 percent probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, according to CME FedWatch data, easing dollar pressure on BTC. Prediction-market bettors on Polymarket place the odds even higher at 69 percent, with trading volume exceeding $1 billion a month.

If Trump’s tariff-rebate plan passes, it would mimic the effects of quantitative easing by boosting disposable income, which has historically been a magnet for retail crypto flows. Coinbase has already logged a 15 percent uptick in user traffic since the Senate vote.

The Outlook

The end of the shutdown represents less a conclusion than a new phase for markets. A swift House approval would trigger immediate relief, but sustaining a rally depends on consistent fiscal execution and global risk appetite.

A messy House amendment fight could drag final passage past Friday, sparking renewed volatility. Persistent inflation above 3 percent might also restrain the Fed from cutting rates, muting upside.

If history rhymes, Bitcoin’s post-shutdown chapter could be explosive. Whether the benchmark coin pushes toward $150,000 by year-end or stalls under macro pressure will hinge on how Washington manages the reboot. Markets, as ever, will decide long before politicians do.