Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish on Coinbase With Strategic Upgrade

Growth Beyond Trading Fees

On January 5, Goldman analysts led by James Yaro raised their 12-month price target for Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) to $303 from $294. That adjustment implies roughly 18% upside from the stock’s close at $254.92 that day, when it gained 7.77% amid heavy trading volume.

The upgrade comes after COIN endured a 13% drop over the past 12 months, lagging the S&P 500’s 15% advance. Yet, year-to-date through early January, shares have rebounded about 11%, reflecting renewed investor interest.

What prompted this change? Goldman points to Coinbase’s evolution beyond a simple trading platform. The company now commands a 48% share of the U.S. crypto exchange market, with 9.5 million monthly transacting users and $500 billion in assets under custody.

These metrics underpin projections for 12% annual revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, outpacing the 8% expected for peers. More crucially, subscription and services revenue, spanning custody, stablecoins like USDC, staking, and prime brokerage, has ballooned to nearly 40% of total revenue, up from under 5% five years ago.

This shift reduces reliance on volatile trading fees, which still dominate but face less exposure to market swings.

The “Everything Exchange” Strategy

Coinbase’s third-quarter 2025 results reflect this resilience. Total revenue hit $1.87 billion, a 55% year-over-year increase, with consumer transaction revenue at $844 million after a 30% quarterly rise.

Subscription and services brought in substantial contributions, including $355 million from USDC alone, up 7% from the prior quarter.

These figures demonstrate how Coinbase benefits from ecosystem expansion, even as bitcoin hovered around $93,000 to $94,000 in early 2026 trading.

The upgrade aligns with Coinbase’s aggressive product push in December 2025. The exchange rolled out stock and ETF trading on its platform, perpetual futures contracts, advanced tools for automated financial advisors, and an AI-powered Coinbase Advisor to help users manage portfolios.

It also entered prediction markets through partnerships like Kalshi, allowing bets on real-world events, and began offering tokenized equities.

These additions position Coinbase as an “everything exchange,” blending traditional finance with crypto.

Analysts at Goldman see this as key to capturing growth in tokenization, where real-world assets like real estate or art are digitized on blockchains, and prediction markets, which could draw institutional players seeking alternative hedging.

This optimism ties into a favorable regulatory landscape emerging in the U.S. With the new administration in place, bipartisan efforts are advancing on crypto market structure legislation.

Senators from both parties reconvened talks in early January on a bill that could clarify rules for digital assets, stablecoins, and exchanges. Industry watchers anticipate passage in 2026, fostering broader adoption.

Stablecoin regulations, for instance, might integrate them into core finance, while the Genius Act could streamline innovation. Goldman’s base case assumes these reforms catalyze institutional inflows, though risks linger if legislation stalls.

Institutional Adoption and Market Context

Look at recent moves by other Wall Street giants for context. Morgan Stanley filed for a Bitcoin Trust ETF and a Solana Trust ETF in late 2025, aiming to track prices directly with staking options. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $697.2 million in inflows on January 5 alone, led by BlackRock’s iShares fund with $372.5 million.

Such activity signals traditional finance’s deepening embrace of crypto, reducing its speculative stigma.

Goldman itself maintains buy ratings on Robinhood Markets Inc. and Interactive Brokers Group Inc., while downgrading eToro to neutral due to competitive pressures and higher acquisition costs.

Yet, not all views are unanimous. Rosenblatt Securities recently cut its COIN price target to $325 from $470, citing a 35% deceleration in fourth-quarter 2025 trading volume to $270 billion. Still, Wall Street’s consensus leans moderate buy, with an average target of $376.61, suggesting 49% potential upside.

This reflects belief in Coinbase’s structural advantages, even as competition intensifies from platforms like Binance or newer entrants.

Navigating Future Volatility

Investors should watch upcoming catalysts. Coinbase’s push into international markets, where it holds licenses in over 100 countries, could boost volumes. Partnerships for tokenization, like those with financial institutions, may unlock trillions in assets.

Prediction markets, meanwhile, tap into a niche projected to expand under clearer rules, drawing parallels to derivatives in traditional finance.

Goldman’s call isn’t isolated enthusiasm. It echoes a sector-wide pivot where crypto exchanges morph into comprehensive financial hubs.

Coinbase’s journey mirrors the crypto industry’s maturation. Founded in 2012 amid bitcoin’s early hype, it went public in 2021 at lofty valuations, only to weather the 2022 bear market that wiped out firms like FTX. Recovery began with bitcoin’s rally post-2024 halvings, but 2025 brought volatility from geopolitical tensions and interest rate shifts.

Now, with infrastructure revenue stabilizing earnings, projected to grow 13% annually through 2027, Coinbase appears better equipped for cycles.