Will TRUMP Coin Rally Ahead of Melania Trump Movie Release?

Explosive Debuts and Early Market Dominance

The $TRUMP meme coin debuted on January 17, 2025, just days before former President Donald Trump’s second inauguration, and was designed as a digital token tied to his brand and political base.

It initially circulated 200 million tokens out of a total supply capped at 1 billion, with the remaining 800 million owned by Trump-linked entities (CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC).

Within 24 hours of launch, the market capitalization of $TRUMP surged past $27 billion, briefly ranking the token among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by value.

That early surge was punctuated by exceptional price volatility. Reports from early trading show $TRUMP reaching peaks near $75, with total valuation briefly topping $15 billion, before cooling sharply as broader crypto markets corrected.

A host of factors, including the simultaneous launch of Melania Trump’s own meme coin, parcelled attention and speculative capital across both tokens.

The Melania Launch and Subsequent Crash

Melania Trump’s $MELANIA token arrived on January 19, 2025, gaining rapid traction with a spike in its early market cap to multi-billion levels. DEX data captured a jump above $6 billion in under two hours, with hundreds of thousands of wallets joining the rally.

Yet the rapid ascent was followed by equally swift declines, a pattern repeated across meme coin launches in 2025. Within weeks, both $TRUMP and $MELANIA were trading at a fraction of their all-time highs, with $TRUMP down roughly 93% and $MELANIA down nearly 98% from peak levels.

The extreme downturn has drawn intense scrutiny. Ethics experts and financial analysts have questioned the conflation of political identity with speculative assets, highlighting the concentrated token ownership and the risk profiles embedded in such high-volatility instruments.

High transaction fees, reportedly nearing $100 million on the $TRUMP token ecosystem during the early frenzy, have also drawn criticism as small traders bore significant losses.

Despite the precipitous price drops, the market has not entirely dismissed speculative interest. In 2026, the $MELANIA token saw a modest bounce of about 50% year-to-date, outperforming its presidential partner coin as news of the Melania documentary spread.

Open interest metrics suggest speculative positions jumped by roughly 85% this year, a sign that traders remain sensitive to narrative catalysts even after historic losses.

Documentary Hype vs. Box Office Reality

The documentary itself has added complexity to the story. Titled Melania and produced by Amazon MGM Studios in partnership with multiple production entities, the film provides unprecedented behind-the-scenes access to the logistical and ceremonial preparation of the First Lady around the 20 days leading up to the 2025 inauguration.

Released worldwide in theaters on January 30 and slated for Amazon Prime streaming thereafter, the documentary has drawn mixed reactions.

Box office data from the UK indicates soft early ticket sales in more than 100 cinemas, a noted underperformance compared with typical documentary releases.

Industry projections suggest a modest estimated USD 5 million opening weekend despite heavy promotional spending that reportedly exceeded USD 35 million by Amazon.

Structural Risks and the Path Ahead

Commentary from late-night television and social media has ranged from derision at the perceived vanity of the project to pointed critiques of how political branding intersects with entertainment.

Independent analysts have warned that weak public engagement with the film could limit any positive spillover into speculative markets such as cryptocurrencies.

Fundamental forces in the broader crypto market cannot be ignored.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced renewed price momentum in early 2026, with Bitcoin hovering around $88,000, while evidence of risk-off sentiment and macroeconomic tightening pressure speculative altcoins, including meme coins.

These larger market currents may blunt the impact of narrative-driven rallies.

The core question for investors remains whether a documentary release, even one with political and cultural resonance, can materially shift the outlook for assets that have shed the vast majority of their valuation since inception.

History suggests narrative events can temporarily spark trading activity, but sustained rallies require deeper liquidity, widening use cases, and investor confidence beyond headline news and celebrity endorsement.

In the case of $TRUMP and $MELANIA, speculative interest tied to a film premiere may offer a transient price uptick, but structural weaknesses in tokenomics and concentrated supply ownership, combined with broader industry headwinds, suggest caution is warranted for market participants gauging a long-term rebound ahead of the documentary’s release.

As the Melania film reaches a global audience, the crypto market’s response will reveal whether this chapter in the intersection of politics and digital assets is a footnote or a fulcrum for renewed meme coin interest.