Polymarket Targets $10 Billion Valuation in Bold US Return Bid

Polymarket launched in 2020 on Ethereum, allowing global users to trade on outcomes from stock rallies to entertainment awards. Its rapid rise in the United States soon drew regulatory scrutiny. In 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined the company $1.4 million for offering unregistered binary options. U.S. access was blocked, pushing operations abroad, where adoption in Asia and Europe helped sustain growth.

In 2025, Polymarket repositioned by acquiring QCX, a CFTC-registered exchange, for $112 million. QCX provided the compliant framework needed to clear derivatives and satisfy audit requirements. A CFTC no-action letter on swap reporting in September removed another obstacle, while the broader digital asset sector stabilized following the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January, which drew over $50 billion from institutions.

By September 2025, Polymarket’s year-to-date trading volume hit $8.5 billion, surpassing all of 2024 by 15 percent. Monthly activity averaged $1.1 billion across politics, economics, entertainment, and climate markets. The election cycle alone drove $3.7 billion, with swing-state probabilities landing within two percentage points of actual results. Bitedge analysts noted Polymarket’s accuracy exceeded that of major polling models.

Investor interest is growing alongside activity. The company crossed $1 billion in funding in June following a $45 million extension, then added another $200 million by September to approach a $9 billion valuation. Sources say $10 billion term sheets are circulating, a level that would represent a tenfold increase over 2024 and match the rapid growth of early-stage technology companies.

Paradigm, an early Coinbase backer, is among the leading investors. 1789 Capital has also taken a stake, with Donald Trump Jr. joining as an advisor in August to provide political access as the firm prepares for its U.S. return.

The company has deployed Polygon’s layer-2 scaling to cut fees by 90 percent and accommodate higher trading volumes. Marketing budgets have expanded to target U.S. retail users, recalling the mass adoption campaigns that powered trading apps such as Robinhood.

Beyond retail speculation, banks are experimenting with prediction contracts for use in corporate strategy and risk management. Goldman Sachs has tested pilots to hedge election outcomes, hinting at institutional revenue streams.

Competitive Field

Polymarket’s rivals are also scaling. Kalshi, a centralized competitor focused on fiat, raised $185 million in June at a $2 billion valuation and is reportedly moving toward $5 billion. Its volumes are dominated by sports betting, which made up three-quarters of its $500 million in May.

Kalshi’s advantage lies in being CFTC-compliant from inception, giving it a smoother regulatory record.

Legacy players lag behind. PredictIt remains constrained by an $850 per-bet cap tied to campaign finance rules, limiting it to academic users and volumes below $100 million annually. Ethereum-based Augur continues to struggle with liquidity and usability. DraftKings attempted political markets in 2024 but generated only $200 million before state-level bans cut activity.

Prediction platforms, structured as continuous markets rather than one-off bets, are increasingly attracting quantitative traders who arbitrage against news releases and economic data.

Path Back to the U.S.

Polymarket plans to debut in the fourth quarter of 2025 through QCX, offering contracts on midterm elections, inflation targets, and judicial nominations. Biometric verification will bring onboarding in line with Bank Secrecy Act standards, while Chainlink oracles will secure event outcomes.

The company projects up to 50 million users in its first year, tapping into pent-up U.S. demand.

This is not without risks. Volatile cryptocurrency prices could magnify losses for inexperienced users, and concentrated positions threaten to skew markets. In 2024, a $50 million Trump bet briefly distorted odds, leading to new transparency measures and position limits. Policymakers are monitoring developments closely.

Europe’s MiCA regime, implemented in 2024, provides a potential template for U.S. oversight should prediction volumes prove useful as policy indicators.

Looking Ahead

A $10 billion valuation would place Polymarket among the most valuable firms in digital finance, on par with Coinbase at similar stages. The implications stretch beyond retail traders. Insurers are testing prediction markets for weather modeling, while retailers are exploring them for supply chain forecasting. According to the Futures Industry Association, the sector grew 150 percent in 2025 and could reach $20 billion by 2027.

Whether the company secures its valuation and scales successfully in America will shape not just its future but also the trajectory of a sector where markets place probabilities directly in the hands of participants.