Solana Faces Critical Rejection at $145 Resistance

A Stalled Rally: What Happened at $145?

Solana’s recent surge, which saw it climb 36% from its February low of $95, has stalled at the $145 supply zone. This level, identified as a high time-frame resistance, has historically capped SOL’s upward momentum. According to technical analysis, the $145 zone aligns with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator for long-term trends.

The rejection here, with declining trading volume, suggests weakening bullish momentum.

Data from Glassnode highlights a significant supply cluster at $129.79, where over 32 million SOL were transacted. This zone could act as support if prices retreat, but a failure to hold $129 may push SOL toward $100 or lower.

Macro and Market Forces: What’s Driving Solana?

Solana’s price action isn’t happening in isolation. Global economic factors, including U.S. tariff policies under President Donald Trump, have rattled crypto markets. A brief pause in Trump’s tariff plans in early April sparked a 13.7% SOL rally, but renewed tariff talks have reintroduced volatility.

The broader crypto market lost $1.3 trillion in value since January, with altcoins like Solana, Ethereum, and XRP facing sharper declines than Bitcoin.

Within Solana’s ecosystem, meme coin activity has been a double-edged sword. Tokens like Fartcoin (FART), Popcat (POP), and Bonk (BONK) have driven decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, with Raydium and Orca handling 30% of FART’s spot trading. This surge pushed Solana’s total value locked (TVL) to $7.08 billion, overtaking competitors like Tron and Base.

However, the fading hype around these meme coins, with a 50% drop in daily DEX volumes from January’s $36 billion peak, dampened enthusiasm.

Regulatory Hopes and Network Upgrades

Solana’s long-term outlook hinges on regulatory and technological developments. Analysts are optimistic about a potential U.S. spot Solana ETF in 2025, following Canada’s launch of similar products. Firms like VanEck and 21Shares have filed applications, but limited institutional interest and Ethereum ETF underperformance temper expectations. An approved ETF could drive demand, but regulatory hurdles remain.

On the technical side, Solana’s infrastructure upgrades, such as Coinbase’s asynchronous transaction processing, have boosted block processing by 5x. These improvements reinforce Solana’s edge in speed and cost, making it a preferred platform for DeFi and NFT projects. However, past network congestion issues and scandals tied to Solana-based meme coins, like Official Trump (TRUMP), have raised concerns about stability and reputation.

What’s Next for Solana?

Solana must clear the $145-$150 resistance zone to resume its upward trajectory. A breakout above $150 could target $180 or even $200, especially if meme coin activity rebounds or ETF approval gains traction.

Conversely, a drop below $129 could trigger a sell-off, with $100 as the next psychological support. Polymarket predictions show 20% of participants expecting a dip to $80 in April, while 30% foresee a rise to $150.

Investors should also watch whale activity. Recent data from LookOnChain revealed a whale unstaking 159,028 SOL ($16.5 million), signaling potential selling pressure. Meanwhile, corporate adoption, like Janover’s $21.2 million SOL purchase, could provide a bullish counterbalance.

Solana’s future depends on its ability to navigate resistance, capitalize on ecosystem growth, and weather macro headwinds. The $145 rejection has put bears in the driver’s seat, but SOL’s resilience and fundamentals suggest it’s far from out of the game.

Disclosure: The views expressed in this article do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risk, and readers should perform due diligence.