U.S. Shutdown Nears End: Crypto Impact

The Shutdown’s Immediate End and Political Context

Hassett’s comments came amid ongoing negotiations between President Donald Trump and congressional leaders, following 11 failed votes in the Senate, including Monday’s 50-43 tally.

Hassett pointed to the shifting dynamics following recent protests and suggested that moderate Democrats might soften their stance to pave the way for a deal.

This prediction aligns with lawmakers returning to Washington, where behind-the-scenes talks have intensified.

Since the deadlock started, financial markets have felt the strain in subtle ways. Economic data releases, such as September CPI data, originally due October 10, are now released on October 24. Cryptocurrencies, often seen as hedges against traditional system failures, experienced initial volatility, with Bitcoin prices dipping by more than 10%.

Government shutdowns typically cause short-term disruptions; however, they rarely change long-term trends.

This instance, however, intersects with global tensions, including U.S.-China trade frictions and conflicts in Ukraine and Venezuela. Polymarket bettors place a 67 percent chance of it exceeding 10 more days, yet Hassett’s optimism injects a counter-narrative.

Cryptocurrency’s Pending Regulatory and Data Reset

The cryptocurrency market remains one of the most shutdown-sensitive sectors. Should the U.S. government reach a resolution mid-week, as forecast by Hassett, the subsequent week will reveal crypto’s ability to withstand both a data flood and a regulatory reset.

With the SEC and CFTC operating at minimal capacity since October 1, the agencies are expected to fast-track pending cases, including more than 90 altcoin ETF applications tied to Solana, XRP, Cardano, Litecoin, and Dogecoin.

Decisions regarding approvals or rejections may be made by the end of the week. A swift go-ahead might propel 15–20% price jumps across these tokens, attracting $1–2 billion in inflows similar to Bitcoin’s post-2024 surge.

Traders shouldn’t overlook the data side of things. The September CPI report, postponed from October 10 to October 24, will be key, with forecasts pointing to a 3.1% yearly rise. If inflation cools below 3.0%, markets will almost fully price in a 25-basis-point Fed cut at the October 28–29 meeting.

That would likely push fresh liquidity into crypto, just as it did when Bitcoin bounced past $118,000 earlier this month.

A hotter reading, though, could shift sentiment fast. Remember 2013’s playbook: stocks rose 3% after the shutdown, but crypto stayed capped.

This week’s jobless claims are another signal; under 260,000 means steady jobs, over 300,000 risks Bitcoin sliding toward $105,000.

Key Economic Indicators and Market Watchlist

All eyes now shift to the Fed. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes from September’s cut will be parsed for hints about 2025. Nine policymakers still lean toward two more rate reductions, while seven want to pause or even hike again.

Powell’s upcoming speech could tip the scales. If his tone turns dovish, Ethereum’s steady rise from $3,875 could stretch to $4,400 as layer-2 upgrades regain momentum.

On the corporate side, about 10% of S&P 500 companies, including the big tech names, report earnings this week. Strong results usually nudge equities 1–2% higher, a move that often aligns with Bitcoin’s recovery trends.

The momentum for cryptocurrency appears poised to accelerate. ETF inflows are climbing back to about $1.8 billion per week, echoing early-October’s rhythm, while trading activity is up 12% since the standoff ended. But the macro backdrop still matters. OPEC’s oil outlook, due mid-week, could move markets if output increases relieve some of the tariff tension from China’s 100% import threats.

A repeat of $6 billion in inflows – seen during the first week of the shutdown – might supercharge altcoins, with Dogecoin and XRP well-positioned to double from $0.195 and $2.42.

What Happens Next?

The next few days leave little room for noise. Clarity moves markets, confusion fuels volatility. Any disconnect between data and Fed tone could swing prices 5–10%.

All eyes are on Bitcoin’s $120,000 line in the sand. A clean break higher strengthens the bull story; a stumble could see traders rotate back into gold around $4,110.

It’s a trader’s market now. Stay sharp, move fast, and let fundamentals lead the way.