Understand odds as probability with overround

You need to get good odds to be a long term winning sports bettor. If you can grasp the concepts in this article you are doing better than 95% of the betting public and are well on your way. So sharpen your pencil!

The relationship between odds and probability

Odds on a selection come from the probability of that selection winning. There is an inverse relationship between odds and probability. Favourites have a higher probability of winning so get lower odds, underdogs have a lower probability of winning so get higher odds.

To work out what probability odds represent see our odds conversion table with probability, enter the odds into our overround and probability calculator or divide 100 by the decimal odds, that is


100 ÷ odds = probability %

For example with decimal odds of 2


100 ÷ 2 = 50%
To compare the competitiveness of sportsbook’s odds across different events without needing a calculator a lot of people check the 50:50s. These are markets with a theoretical 50% chance of going either way. A fair bet would be odds of 2 which represent 50% probability for each selection totaling 100% probabilities.

The sportsbook’s overround

The sum of the probability for all possible outcomes in an event must be 100%. For example in an NBA game (no draw) if one team has a 60% chance of winning then the other team must have a 40% chance of winning. But if the sportsbook sets odds that represented 100% probabilities then they would make no money.

So they have to give you lower odds. Lower odds represent a higher probability and if we add up the probabilities of these odds they will equal more than 100%.

A low margin sportsbook like Nitrogen (review) sets their 50:50s at odds of 1.93 which represents 51.81% probability for a sum of 103.63% probabilities. A high margin sportsbook might offer 1.88 which represents 53.19% probability for a 106.38% book.

The true probabilities total 100% so the sportsbook offering 1.88 is giving themselves a 6.38% advantage.

The amount over 100% is the sportsbooks overround, also known as juice, vigorish, vig, the sportsbook’s edge or the take. If the sportsbook offers odds so that the sum of the probabilities they represent is 105% that is a 5% overround.

Overround is the enemy of the bettor because the higher the overround the lower the odds and the less the return for winning bets.

Some sportsbooks choose a point spread or points total which is not quite 50:50. For example handicapping a game at 8.5 points even though the market consensus says it should be 7.5 points. This makes it harder to compare to other sportsbooks who have the spread at 7.5 points so we need to work out the overround.

Selection Odds
Boston Celtics –8.5 points 1.95
L.A. Lakers +8.5 points 1.80

100 ÷ 1.95 = 51.28
+
100 ÷ 1.80 = 55.55
= 106.83

So the over round is 6.83%

Another trick sportsbooks use is to have good odds on markets with 2 selections but less competitive odds on 3 way and larger markets because it’s harder to see the value just by looking at the odds. To calculate the overround on a 3 way market like

Selection Odds
New York Red Bulls 1.70
Draw 3.55
L.A. Galaxy 5.00

100 ÷ 1.70 = 58.82
100 ÷ 3.55 = 28.17
100 ÷ 5.00 = 20
58.82 + 28.17 + 20 = 107.02

So the overround is 7.02%

For that reason you can’t just compare 50:50s to work out how competitive sportsbooks odds are. The best thing to do is check our odds comparisons.

Overround works exactly the same for a market with any number of possible outcomes so long as all possible outcomes are available for betting.

Understand Odds as Probability With Overround

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1 Comment

  1. Luke 9 months ago

    Fantastic article. The easiest, best explanation of overround I have ever seen.

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